ST. BONAVENTURE, N.Y.—For decades, the NFL has promoted itself as a league built on parity, where every team operates under the same financial rules. But new research led by St. Bonaventure University (SBU) scholars suggests that geography – specifically state income taxes– may quietly tilt the competitive balance. The study, published Nov. 7, 2025, in the International Journal of Financial Studies, found that NFL teams in higher-tax states tend to perform worse, particularly after the league implemented a hard salary cap in 1994 that limited teams’ ability to offset financial disadvantages.
This study was led by SBU professor Dr. Benjamin Posmanick and co-authored by Dr. Ryan Pinheiro, who was on the St. Bonaventure faculty during the research and is now at the University of Akron, along with recent SBU MBA graduates Sean Fay and Dylan Ameis.
According to the research, the salary cap serves as a critical dividing line in understanding the results. Prior to its implementation, teams in higher-tax states did not experience the same performance decline that appears in later years. After the cap took effect, teams operating in higher-tax environments showed a measurable decrease in on-field success compared to teams in lower-tax states.
“Because teams in higher-tax states have to pay players more to compensate for taxes, the salary cap becomes more difficult to navigate, and those teams tend to perform worse,” Posmanick said.
The findings are based on publicly available NFL performance data and state income tax information, allowing researchers to isolate tax policy as a variable rather than focusing on individual players or coaching decisions.
The scholars describe the state income taxes as an “additional constraint” on NFL teams, particularly during free agency and roster construction. Because NFL franchises cannot exceed the salary cap, those in higher-tax states are unable to offer players additional compensation to offset reduced take-home pay, creating a subtle but measurable disadvantage over time.
“We see a clear trend that teams in high-income-tax states perform well before the salary cap but experience a strong decrease in performance after it’s implemented,” Pinheiro said.
The study also highlights why similar effects are less pronounced in other professional sports leagues. In MLB and the NBA, teams are not bound by a hard salary cap, allowing organizations in higher-tax states to increase salaries or use luxury-tax mechanisms to remain competitive. The NFL’s strict payroll limits, by contrast, leave teams with little flexibility to counteract tax-related disadvantages.
“I don’t think it’ll have a huge impact on other pro sports,” Pinheiro said. “In the NBA, for example, there are exemptions in place to their salary cap, so teams can get around it in ways they can’t in the NFL.”
Now working beyond the university, Fay and Ameis acknowledge the experience helped prepare them for professional paths by developing skills in research, analysis, and collaboration – skills that translate beyond the scope of this single project. Their involvement ranged from aiding with data collection to helping analyze trends that became part of the study. The work allowed them to apply classroom concepts to real-world data while contributing to a study with national relevance in professional sports.
“I think this experience shows something that’s unique that not a lot of students have,” said Fay. “I was able to apply my love of sports, and I made a point to talk about this research paper in interviews.”
Fay is a partnerships intern with Brooklyn Sports & Entertainment, the Brooklyn Nets ownership group. Ameis is currently halfway through the Operational Development program with M&T Bank.
“It is very nice to see my name, to see that I contributed to a very cool article in a good journal,” said Ameis. “Since the article was rejected a few times, I didn’t know if it would get published or not. I really enjoyed the process, and I would definitely encourage you know students to look into opportunities like that.”
Posmanick and Pinheiro credit their former students’ engagement and dedication played a meaningful role in the project’s success. Their participation also reflects SBU’s emphasis on experiential learning and close faculty-student collaboration, particularly in research that extends beyond campus.
“Sean and Dylan had a fantastic experience, they get a fantastic outcome that they can put on their resume and things,” said Posmanick. “Experiences like this reaffirms the university’s mission of being able to work with the whole person, not just seeing them as a student, but really being able to develop them.”
Pinheiro cherishes the experience and plans to take what he learned with him at the University of Akron.
“I loved having student involvement. That one of my highlights at Saint Bonaventure,” said Pinheiro. “I want to bring more student research collaboration here to Akron.”
Looking ahead, the researchers say the study opens the door for further analysis. Future work may examine game-level matchups in a head-to-head capacity, building on the foundation established by the research.